Dallas at New Orleans

The expected shootout between Dallas and San Diego never materialized last week and we cashed on the UNDER in that one. I'm again going to fade the expected high-scoring outcome here. It seems as far as the Cowboys go this season, those types of games have been reserved for the Giants, who may have their number due to familiarity, or just luck. In their two games vs. New York, the Cowboys and Giants teamed up to score a total of 119 points. Outside of the Giants, Dallas has not allowed a single opponent to score more than 21 points this entire season - eleven games! And, a Dallas offense that was lighting things up earlier in the season has gone cold. Dallas has averaged just 16.5 points per game since the mid-way point in the season. The fact is, as offensive as the Cowboys are in the public's eyes it has been the defense carrying the mail this season. Last week everyone expected the high-flying Chargers to put up a bunch of offense vs. Dallas. Going into that game, San Diego had scored 30+ in each of their last four games, averaging 34 ppg. They managed 20 against Dallas. Those Chargers numbers look like New Orleans’ numbers, so it isn't out of the question that Dallas is going to hold New Orleans down some here. Outside of the Giants, when the Cowboys have faced a team with a winning record the Boys have alllowed 20, 17, 10, and 7 points for just 13.5 ppg. Even adding in the Giants games, they have averaged just 18.1 ppg allowed! New Orleans has a solid defense, allowing 21 points per game this season. With Dallas' offense tanking in the second-half of the season, it's going to take a lot to get over this high total. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 9-2 UNDER after scoring 25+ points in three straight games. This may look like a shootout, but the total is set too high. I like the UNDER.