Dallas at Minnesota

The Cowboys have caught the attention of everyone with two shutouts to close the season, four straight wins overall, and a dismantling of the Eagles last week. The defense is playing as well as ever and Tony Romo appears to be out of his late-season funk of previous years. So what has happened is that this line is squeezed by the recent Cowboy surge. Right now, there's a lot of people that believe the Cowboys are a better team than the Vikings. I am not one of them. The reality is that Minnesota won more games when they counted, they averaged nearly a TD more per game on offense than Dallas and they are playing with rest at home. Dallas has a great running game and a great QB. But doesn't Minnesota have the same? A lot is made of the Vikings’ apparent late collapse as they lost to Carolina, Arizona and Chicago. The problem is that the Vikings had little incentive in those games, and it is heavily weighted into the line here. The Vikings are 8-0 at home and that was a mark established with all meaningful games. When the games meant something to the Vikings, they won each of their last five home games by 17 points or more! The average in the five games was 24.8 points per game. I'll gladly take a team that is unbeaten at home that is giving points to a team that is less than the established amount of three points for home-field advantage. This is not a happy place for Dallas as their last four trips to the Metrodome have resulted in a 0-4 ATS mark. The Cowboys have not been a good turf team as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four on artificial surfaces. Teams that faced a division rival in the playoffs are 7-13 ATS the following week and Dallas just had back-to-backs with a division rival which sometimes makes it tougher to match the intensity of a team taking to the field for the first time in the post-season. Dallas is getting a lot of play with their defense, but how about the Vikings’ defense at home? Over the second half of the season, in their last four home games the Vikings have allowed 9 ppg, just 10.5 first downs per game, and opponents have rushed for 201 yards on 60 carries, or 3.35 per rush. Passing, the opponents have totaled 571 yards, time of possession is just 22 minutes per game, with none of the four teams topping 215 yards of offense. I think that more than matches what Dallas has done, and I love that their defense is getting all the attention because the Vikings’ defensive numbers at home are far superior. Dallas has had a tremendous run, but playing yet another peak-level game here in Minnesota against Favre and the Vikings seems unlikely to me. The Vikings are 20-4 as a home favorite under Brad Childress and this is a small number to cover. I like the Vikings here.