Dallas at Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers were supposed to have one of the best offenses in the NFL before the season started. It certainly started out that way, so blaming what has happened on the absence of Jordy Nelson doesn't hold a lot of water. I think Green Bay needed something big and good to happen for them, and they got that last week with a 61 yard Hail Mary pass connection by Aaron Rodgers. Sometimes it takes something crazy like that for wake up an offense that has certainly proven they can get it done without Nelson. Remember the Packers were 6-0 and scoring 27.3 points per game. That pass also gave the Packers 27 points in Detroit last week, more than the Lions had given up in weeks. The Packers defense is a tad under average, allowing 5.7 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.6. I also think Dallas has something to play for for the first time this season at just one game off the pace in the NFC East. This is the lowest home total for Green Bay this year, and they have been 21-10 to the OVER in this building in their last 31 to a total of less than 45. Play the OVER.