Dallas at Detroit

The Cowboys are starting to put things together, taking the lead in the NFC East. The Lions relinquished their lead in the NFC Central last week with a loss. This becomes a big game for both teams, and I expect it to be played with high intensity. Dallas is still getting pressure without DeMarcus Ware in the lineup, and he is practicing this week. They also have a good weapon in their secondary to blanket Calvin Johnson in Brandon Carr, who has allowed just a 33% completion percentage over the last two weeks. If Johnson can't get his share, we saw how the Lions' offense struggled in his absence. The Cowboys defense has allowed a solid 22.1 points per game this season and just 16.7 per game on the road. This line says these two teams are equal, giving 3 points for Detroit for home field. I disagree. I think Dallas is measurably better and I think there's a lot of line value at +3. The Lions are just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 vs. the NFC. They also struggle mightily against good pass offenses having gone just 1-12 ATS the past three seasons when facing an offense that completes 64%+ of their passes. Detroit is also 1-8 ATS over that span in games with a total set at 50 or more. They just can't compete with teams that are expected to shoot-out with them. Dallas is 9-1 to the UNDER the past three seasons on the road with a total set over 45 and they are 31-15 UNDER in their last 46 road games vs. teams that pass well (61%+ pass completions). Take Dallas and the UNDER here.