Dallas at Detroit

Dallas is sitting pretty. They are 11-1, having won six in a row and they just nailed their most important win of the season over their only real threat in their conference (Green Bay). The Cowboys hold a commanding two-game lead for homefield advantage throughout thanks to the fact that they own the tiebreaker vs the Packers. They are headed to the Super Bowl in the minds of most and they have to be feeling more comfortable than any other team in the league right now. This is a perfect spot for a letdown. The Lions are a desparate team right now. Their playoff hopes, which looked golden after starting off 6-2, have now diminished to hopeful as they have dropped four straight games. Dallas is coming off of three straight division rivalry games, a Thanksgiving Day Game, and their biggest game of the year. Looking past the Lions, they have yet another division rivalry game vs the Eagles on deck. So if their is a spot for the Cowboys to relax, it is right here. Especially considering that Detroit looks as bad as anyone right now, coming off a 32-point loss to the Vikings. Yes, the Lions have lost four straight but that included losses to two of the NFC's best teams in Green Bay and New York. The other two losses were on the road vs. teams playing very well at home (Minneosta and Arizona). Last week was their only loss by more than this spread in seven weeks. They are winning their home games by an average of 7 points per game. Detroit has gone 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after having lose three straight ATS. Dallas is 3-18 ATS in their last 21 road games after having covered the spread in 3+ of their last four games. Detroit is also on a 12-2 ATS run after having been outgained in two straight games by 100+ yards. We have an overlay going on here with a team in a perfect letdown spot. We will back the Lions, a team in desparate need, to surpsie many and stay in this one.