Dallas at Carolina

Perfect set up here. Carolina, starting the year 0-2 without Steve Smith, won four straight with him back in the lineup before losing a very close game last week vs. Cincinnati. Carolina was an underdog in that game so bettors are not holding it against them that they lost. They still like this team - a lot. It was a team many fans and ESPN analysts picked for the Super Bowl prior to the season. After their great run the past five weeks, everyone has convinced themselves again that they were right with their preseason pick and Carolina is a great team. But are they great? Dallas is off a bad loss to the Giants on national TV. They now stick a new QB in there and he didn't look very good in 2nd half play last week. So, the public is all over the Panthers in this one. Your gut is probably right there saying "How can he pick the Cowboys here?" About 67% of the money is coming in on Carolina on this game. Well, as I asked last week when picking Oakland to win, bear with me. I actually think the change to Tony Romo at QB is a good thing. Bledsoe was just too immobile and was getting sacked left and right. Romo will be able to make more plays with his feet. He looked great in preseason and he's no rookie. This will be his first NFL start but he's been with the team for a while. He knows this system. He has had a full week to prepare with the starting offense. His teammates will "step it up" this week to help out the new guy. Dallas is in need of a win here, sitting at 3-3, coming off a humiliating loss. They will leave it all on the field and play harder. Romo's game on Monday night wasn't so bad in retrospect. He did throw three interceptions but one was a batted ball that happen to fall into the arms of a defender. He was 14 of 25 for 227 yards and two touchdowns - not bad for one half of play, especially when the defense knows you need to throw the ball. I look for Romo to better utilize Terrell Owens than did Bledsoe. Romo won't be afraid to throw it up to the guy who will more often than not come down with the ball. Owens has publicly commented that he welcomes the change. For a self-absorbed guy who only cares about how well he will do on Sunday, that should tell you something. And, Carolina's defense will have a harder time preparing for this game because of the change. They don't know what to expect from this quarterback - there's no tape. Back to the Panthers. Carolina is a very solid team, but they aren't blowing anyone out. Three of their four victories have come by a field goal or less. They have only won by 5+ (this spread) once this season and that was at home against the lowly Cleveland Browns - big deal! They are actually giving up more points per game this year than they are getting (17.6 to 18.3)! They were just 2 for 11 last week on third down against an average Cincinnati defense. I am not yet convinced that Carolina is a dominating team. This spread is inflated as Carolina should probably be favored by about 2-3 points. And that's without the motivational advantage that I believe the Cowboys to have. I like Dallas to win this game or at least keep it very close.