Dallas at Arizona

Sometimes when you see a team that has struggled, their output is much less than what you expected when the season began and you see them as a home dog of a TD, it makes sense and the logic fits the state of the teams. There are also times when you look at these numbers, and they truly are inconsistent with when they should occur. Arizona has been one of the best teams in the NFL as a home underdog, but picking the right spot to back the Cards is vitally important. Since 2000-01 they have been in the position of being a home dog of 7 or 7.5 just 8 times. Let's take a look at what we can gain by looking close at those situations. They are 6-2 ATS in these situations, winning half of them SU, and losing in OT in yet another. The two losses were to Superbowl winner New England on its way to a 17-2 season, and to the NYG on their way to a Superbowl game! They also took on 03-04 Superbowl loser Carolina 20-17, but got the cover. The footnote here is Arizona came in losers of 5 straight games! They also played Minnesota (9-6) as a +7.5. They came into the game having lost 7 straight games, and won outright. They took the 03-04 St. Louis Rams to OT before losing 27-30. That Rams team was 12-4! They beat a GB team as a +7 by the score of 20-13. That Packers team went to the Conference Finals. Our point isn't to compare games that have nothing to do with this game vs Dallas. The point is a 7 point line has not occurred in an Arizona game vs a team that is 4-4, like Dallas. We mentioned above it took Arizona teams losing 5 in a row, 7 in a row as well, but vs Superbowl caliber teams. This line is much higher than it should be, but looks right, because of Arizona's play this year in some high-profile games. It's not commensurate to when and where this line should occur. A little icing on the cake? Dallas is 6-20 ATS last 26 as a road favorite. Arizona is 31-14 ATS the last 45 at home after two straight losses and 16-5 ATS at home after having lost 6+ of their last eight. The public is still enamored with the "new" Dallas Cowboys with Tony Romo at the helm. Dallas lost last week as a favorite but many believe they should have won. They aren't holding that loss against them. We will take the line value, while the public gets snared into backing Dallas at about 65-70%.