Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Rookie Ben Roethlisberger (did I spell that right?) has been a pleasent surprise, going 2-0 since replacing Tommy Maddox. That's part of the reason Cleveland is getting nearly a touchdown in this matchup. But who has he played? For that matter, who have the Steelers played all season? Their three victories have come against teams with a combined record of 3-9. In the one game vs. a winning team, the Steelers lost by 17 points to Baltimore, allowing 30 points to a low-scoring offense. Also, part of Pitt's success has been due to good fortune. They've already forced 11 turnovers - nearly half as many as they forced all last year! That kind of luck doesn't continue forever. In October games, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points cover the spread 7 out of ten times when facing a team off three games in which they covered two. I like Cleveland to scrap in this game and keep it close.