Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Only one team has started the season at 0-4 and gone on to make the playoffs. The Steelers' playoffs hopes are on life support, but they still are a long shot with a win and losses by San Diego, Baltimore, and Miami. Despite their chances of making the postseason, this is still a flawed team. I believe this line to be out of whack thanks to the "must win" factor. A quick review of the Pittsburgh season offers some proof. Pittsburgh was a 6-point favorite in week one, but have not been favored by more than 3 points in any game since, and now they're laying 7? It is clearly an inflated line. Remember that Cleveland was a -2.5 point favorite at home just a month ago vs. this same Pittsburgh team. Based on the change of location and that line, the Steelers should be a 3 to 4 point favorite in this game. Despite the recent points the Browns have given up, they remain a decent defensive team that is holding their opponents to considerably less yards per play than they would generate vs. an average defense. The problem has been the consistency on offense, as they have failed to reach 20 points in eight games. Both of these teams bring more to the table on defense than they do offensively. And, being a huge division rivalry, I think the defenses decide this one. The Browns have played to a 31-14-3 mark to the UNDER in their last 48 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game. Pittsburgh is now 13-5 to the UNDER in their last 18 at home, including 11-3 to the UNDER vs. a losing team. And, Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER since last season when facing a losing team. This should be a dog fight, so grab the points and take the UNDER.