Cleveland at New Orleans

You had to like what you saw from Colt MCoy last week. He was under a lot of pressure from a tough defense, but stood his ground in the pocket and threw effectively. McCoy connected for 258 yards against what most would argue is the best defense in the league. That only helps the confidence of a young player. This game he gets a defense that is a lot more yielding than the unit he faced with success a week ago. This week, the yards are more likely to transfer to points. New Orleans got all facets of their offense going for the first time last week vs. Tampa Bay. But, the Bucs are one of the worst teams against the run. In contrast, Cleveland held Rashard Mendenhall to 84 yards on 27 carries last week. We are likely to see the ball is going to be in the air a lot this game. McCoy’s performance last week is not only encouraging, it has been predictive for the Browns who are now 9-0 ATS after a game where they had 250+ in the air. New Orleans has lost 20 of their last 26 home games ATS when matched up against a team at .250 or worse. They are 1-9 ATS in their last ten as a double-digit favorite!The Saints are just 2-4 ATS this season, barely outscoring their opposition. It's clear to me that they simply don't have the magic they had last season.  But, the public isn't getting the message yet. This spread is too large and I like the Browns to cover it. I also like the game ot go OVER. The Browns are 5-1 to the OVER after scoring 15 or less in their previous game. At home, New Orleans is now 17-8-1 to the OVER in their last 26. They are also 29-15 OVER under Sean Payton when coming off a win. I like Cleveland to keep it within this number and the total plays OVER.