Cleveland at Kansas City

Kansas City has not allowed any team to score more than 17 points all season. They are, however, just 0.4 yards better defensively than the offenses they have faced. Those numbers simply don't translate to the elite status the Chiefs are getting and they will likely be exposed as the season progresses. The fact is, KC has benefited from playing some of the league's weaker offenses including Jacksonville, the Giants, Tennessee, Oakland and Houston. This is not a defensive era in the NFL, and this is the lowest posted total this season. That might be fine if you had the league's two defensive teams going at it, but here we do not. There have been 45 games posted this season at 43.5 or lower, and 58% of them have eclipsed the total. This is just too low for today's NFL, especially with one defense here coming in a bit overrated. I like the OVER in this one.