Cleveland at Jacksonville

Here we have another classic case of underrated vs overrated. Jacksonville is not the team most think they are. What used to be a good defense and pass rushing team is now ranked 21st against the pass, having managed just eight sacks on the season. Marcus Stroud is sorely missed and now that Mike Peterson seems to be past his prime, the Jags are getting run on as well. I think Jamal Lewis will be able to give the Browns favorable down and distance. If that holds, then Derek Anderson can have another big game. Without a significant pass rush, Anderson can hurl with the best of them. David Garrard had a breakout season last year for the Jags, but the reality is, this season teams have made adjustments and he has had but two good games all season. He will be missing favorite target Matt Jones, who is serving a three game suspension. The Browns must win this week. A loss and the season is gone. A win keeps hope burning. When this team was in a must-win situation two weeks ago vs. the undefeated Giants, they delivered. What may surprise people is the Browns defense has allowed 14 points or less in four of the last five games, holding teams to 15.6 ppg over the stretch! The Brownies have covered the spread six straight times following a road loss. The Jacksonville of last year won nine of eleven games by 7+ points. This season they haven't beaten anyone by more than a touchdown. The Jags are 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season but 0-4 ATS as a favorite. This line is too high, and I'm jumping on the Browns for the cover the number.