Cleveland at Jacksonville

Looking back to week one, almost everyone thought one of the worst offenses in the NFL would belong to the Cleveland Browns. They had lost Josh Gordon, and didn't really know who the QB would be, but the choices didn't look to be favorable no matter which direction they chose. At the same time, the defense appeared to be the heart of this team prior to the first game. How surprising it has been to see the Cleveland Browns produce a top 10 offense on the season, while the defense ranks #29 in the league. The Browns face a hapless Jacksonville team that played their best football in the first 30 minutes of the season when they led Philadelphia 17-0 at halftime. They have since been out-scored by an ugly 185-64 margin. Jacksonville is a team that ranks #30 on defense and dead last on offense, but should be able to move the ball enough to put up some points against this 29th ranked Cleveland defense, which has not been nearly as good as expected. The problem is that the Browns are going to score plenty as their offense has been good all season, and Jacksonville just doesn't have enough stoppers on defense to stop Cleveland on the ground or in the air. Cleveland scored 21 points or more in just six games all last season, but have done so in all five games this year. The problem is that they allow 23 points per game on the season, and Jacksonville should score enough to send this one OVER the top. The Browns are surprisingly 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is a team that is 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. winning teams. THe Browns are now 8-0 to the OVER when following an ATS win, with Jacksonville at 4-0 ATS in the same situation. Lay the small number on Cleveland and go with the OVER.