Cleveland at Jacksonville

The Cleveland Browns and the Jacksonville Jaguars are two of the NFL's most improved teams from a year ago. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has beaten New Orleans and New England and they had the Jets dead to rights but fumbled away an overtime win. Colt McCoy has stabilized the passing game, making good decisions. And, Peyton Hillis has become one of the leagues top running backs. Throw in Josh Cribbs, who seems to break a return each week, and you have an offense that can get it done. Rob Ryan has the Browns defense ranked in the top 10 in the league in points allowed (20.2). The Jags had a big win over Indianapolis, but that was four weeks ago. Their other four wins on the season have come vs. teams with a combined record of 10-26. The Browns have become cover machines, especially playing within the AFC where they are now 12-4 ATS in their last 16. The Browns are a perfect 6-0 ATS under Eric Mangini vs. bad defensive teams like Jacksonville (teams allowing 350+ yards per game). Jacksonville has been coughing up a lot of money as a favorite. They are 2-12 ATS the past three seasons as a favorite and as home chalk, they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12. Some people are still having trouble believing Cleveland is a good team. I am there already. I'll go with Cleveland in this one.