Cleveland at Detroit

This one may be the ugliest game of the year and described by some as the Losers Bowl. Yes, I'm aware that the Browns offense has five TDs in their last 15 games, so let's get that out of the way first. It is hard to defend against that, but when you look at the roster of opponents in those 15 games, you can make a case that their offense isn't as horrible as it first appears. The Browns have faced Cincinnati three times, the Steelers twice, Baltimore twice, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Denver, Minnesota, Tennessee (last year's version at 13-3), and Philadelphia. That means in 13 of their 15 games, they were playing some of the top defenses in the league. The Browns' one win came in one of the two games they weren't playing over their head. They certainly won't be playing over their head in this one vs. a Lions’ team that has one win in their last 25 games. So as bad as Cleveland looks, they are likely not the worst team on the field today. The Browns played just four teams all of last year with a record of under .500 and in those games averaged 18 ppg. That is a far cry from the five total TDs in their last 15 (vs. 13 teams with winning records). This year through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Lions have to be playing a bad team to be favored, and during this stretch of one win in 25 games, they have been favored three times and are 0-3 ATS. The Browns may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period and should not be favored. I like the Browns plus the 3.5. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns’ last 15 games have seen an average of just under 31 points per game scored, and neither of these teams have enough offense to take advantage of the others deficiencies on defense. After a big defensive effort where they allowed less than 150 passing yards, the Browns are 26-8 to the UNDER and the Lions have played five of their last six at home UNDER. Cleveland is 4-1 UNDER on thee road this season while Detroit is 3-1 UNDER at home. In games played in a dome, the Lions are 17-4 UNDER in their last 21. They are also 10-2 UNDER since last season after a double-digit loss. I like the Brownies in an ugly low-scoring game here.