Cleveland at Cincinnati

Record wise, these two teams are pretty close. But, the reality is that Cincinnati is simply the better team. The Browns own a surprising 5-3 record, but much of that comes courtesy of a soft schedule and a +7 turnover differential (#4 best in the league). If we look at yards-per-play, this team is mediocre on offense and below average on defense. They have had the distinct advantage of playing the three worst teams in the league in Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. And they actually lost to the Jags in a blowout. Cincinnati started the season 3-0 and were the talk of the town. Then they ran into the buzz saw that is the New England Patriots. After that, they tied Carolina and lost to Indy, leaving them at 3-2-1. But, they could have (should have beaten Carolina) and if they did, the Bengals would be sitting at 6-2 with their losses coming to two very good teams in New England and Indy. In the end, this team remains a bit underrated and is still very good - better than their cross-state rivals. The Bengals just don't lose in this building. They are 12-1 here since last season including 4-0 this season, putting up 30.8 points per game. Over the past three seasons, Cincinnati is 8-1 straight-up vs. teams like Cleveland that allow 375+ yards per game. In fact, in the Marvin Lewis era here, this team is 16-2 straight-up vs. these bad defenses. While the game may end up being close to make an ATS play questionable, I really like the home team to win this one so take them on the moneyline.