Cleveland at Chicago

I know, I know - Cleveland is bad! Yes they are, but this is a situation in which I think grabbing the points on them will pay dividends. It's similar to me to the game two weeks ago when they played the Steelers. We were on Cleveland as they covered in that one, getting two touchdowns. The difference here, if there is one, is that we are getting more value at a similar spread. Chicago is certainly no Pittsburgh! Since I have been logging NFL data, which goes back a very long time, this will be the first time in NFL history to my knowledge that a team lost by 28 or more points and is a favorite of 11+ in their next game. Chicago is a 3-3 team that has shown inconsistency, much like their QB Jay Cutler has shown his entire career. Matt Forte is not running the ball as well as last season. Also, their wins over the Lions and the Seahawks didn't prove much. So their season hangs their hat on one game - a three-point win over Pittsburgh. The Bears had a chance to show they were for real the last two weeks and failed to deliver. They are allowing 30 points per game on defense in their last three while producing just 12 ppg in their last two. The Browns are no doubt a mess and there aren’t too many positive things you can say about there offense. But the Bears laying virtually two TDs against anyone right now is dangerous territory. Cleveland seems to respond to a poor defensive game in the previous week, as they have followed a defensive performance of allowing 30 or more points with an 11-3 ATS mark. The Bears aren't the type of team designed to take down big pointspreads as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a favorite of 10.5 or more. I am fading Chicago with this big line.