Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Both of these defenses are going to show up because the AFC North division title is on the line. Freezing rain may also be in order here. The Bengals offense has been quite good at home but the road has been a different story (averaging 19.0 per game). Cincinnati has a lot of talent on defense and it's been most evident in the second half of the season allowing 10, 13, 13 and 0 points in four of the last six games. And, they picked off Peyton Manning four times Monday night. The Bengals prefer ball control on offense, but the Steelers defense is ranked sixth against the run so Cincinnati will have trouble moving the ball with their dual RB threat. The young Pittsburgh defense struggled early on this season, but has been a catalyst down the stretch allowing 21, 20 and 12 points the last three games (all wins). Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 54-41 UNDER when the total is set in this range (42.5 to 49 points). They are also 25-14 UNDER in the Lewis era after a game in which they scored 30+ points and 41-26 UNDER when facing an above-average QB (those completing over 60% of their passes). In late-season play (after week 8), the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers are 30-19 UNDER on the road. Look for a real defensive battle here and take the UNDER.