Cincinnati at New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints saw their home winning streak come to an end last week vs. the 49ers. They get a chacne to start a new one right away, hosting the Cincinnati Bengals - a team that started out strong, but has really struggled since their 3-0 start. Those first three games saw Cincinnati outscore their opponents 80-33. But, they have since been out-scored 117-174. The Bengals' defense has allowed 23 points or more in every one of their last six games, and have allowed 107 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. Last week the Saints outgained the Niners by almost 100 yards, but it was the turnovers that did them in as they finished -2 in that category. The Bengals have been a turnover machine as Andy Dalton continues to struggle. They have had two or more turnovers in five of their last six games. The Saints are 65-17-3 ATS at home if they win the turnover battle, and are 4-3-1 ATS at home even when they lose the turnover battle in their last eight. Much is written about the Saints' home domination, but no one writes why. The reason is simple. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Saints are 22-6-1 ATS at home and the turnovers have gone like this: if they win the turnover battle, they are 12-1 ATS. If it is even they are 6-2 ATS. And f they lose it they're 4-3-1 ATS. They have won or have come out even 70% of the time, and they are 18-3 ATS when that occurs. The Saints have averaged 32.5 points per game in their last 51 home games, so the total looks to be in trouble as well. Opponents have averaged 23.5 ppg against the Saints over the last three years and 25 ppg this year, so Cincinnati is going to score some here. Drew Brees owns a 111.6 passer rating over the last five years as a home favorite, a 30-15 ATS record and 32.5 ppg for the Saints. New Orleans is going to be dead set on not losing two in a row and will come out fired up. I expect Drew Brees to have a monster day. Lay the points on New Orleans and take the OVER.