Cincinnati at Kansas City

It will be hard to top last week's heroics after Kansas City battled back several times and finally beat the Bills, 42-36, in overtime with Pat Mahomes finishing 33 of 44 for 378 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. That last stat is important as Joe Burrow was sacked nine times in Cincinnati's 19-16 victory over the Titans, but the offense was helped out by the Bengals defense, which intercepted Ryan Tannehill three times and held him to 15 of 24 for 220 yards, and the Bengals won't be that lucky against Mahomes. The Bengals were outgained 353-345 overall and 140-65 on the ground. The Chiefs have turned things around after a slow start and are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games and get to avenge a 34-31 loss to the Bengals on Jan. 2 when Burrow threw for 446 yards and four TDs. Obviously, the Chiefs will make some adjustments defending Burrow after seeing him burn them in the last meeting. The Chiefs offense has been spectacular, averaging 31 points per game. Their defense has been a tale of three seasons. In their first five games, this team was last in the NFL giving up 32.6 points per game. Over the next ten games, they cut that to a league-best 11.9 per game. And, over their last four they have regressed somewhat to 28.8 per game. This defense is better than the start of the season, but will allow some points to the Bengals. Kansas City has gone OVER seven games in a row while averaging 37.3 points in that span. They are also 6-2 OVER in their last eight home playoff games and 7-0 OVER in their last seven overall versus AFC teams. Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are 16-7 to the OVER when facing good QBs that copmplete 64%+ of their passes. Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its past seven at home in the playoffs and under Andy Reid thy are 61-46 ATS following a win. Play the Chiefs and the OVER.