Cincinnati at Indianapolis

This is a tough call on the line. Indy has had a dominating offense for most of the season, but it has faltered down the stretch, scoring just 17 points per game over the last three games. Cincinnati has a long history of no-shows in big games, and playoff games. But ther's not guarantee that will continue forever. The Colts defense just isn't very good and that often rears its head in the playoffs as it did last year. Let's look at Indy's offense more closely. They had a huge offensive run over their first nine games where they averaged 32.2 points per game. But, they closed the season over their last seven games scoring just 23.7 ppg. If you take out a 49-point outburst vs. Washington, that output drops to less than 20 ppg in the other six. Andrew Luck threw 26 TD passes in the first nine games and just 14 in the last seven. But, five of those came in the Washington game, leaving just nine in the other six. Cincinnati has held seven teams to 16 points or less on the season, and only Seattle has done so more often with eight. They also held Indy to 27 on the road in the early part of the season when the Colts' offense was really clicking, unlike what they have been late in the season. The Bengals scored just 150 points on the road this season at just 18.8 ppg. I think they are heading for trouble here again in Indy where they failed to produce any points earlier in the season. Either team can win this game but I do think the total is overstated. I see both teams scoring in the low 20s here. The Bengals are 7-1 to the UNDER on the road this season, with those games averaging 37 total points! The Colts' regressing offense is 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games and it won't get any easier in January. Over the past three seasons, Cincinnati is 17-7 UNDER vs. teams like Indy that average 350+ yards per game. And in the Marvin Lewis era here, the Bengals are 42-26 UNDER vs.good passing teams like the Colts (teams with over 60% completion rate). The last four in this series in Indy have all failed to get to the total. This one stays UNDER.