Cincinnati at Green Bay

Yes, Cincinnati is bad. They somehow found a way to lose last week against Denver, despite owning a lead with under a minute to go. No one wants to touch this team after that debacle. And, the Packers, despite a rusty opener vs. Chicago, are still a public favorite. As a result, 73% of the public are backing Green Bay here, despite a lot of wood (9.5 points). While there's no arguing which is the better team here, this is the perfect set up for Cincinnati cover. When one side seems so obvious and your inner voice is telling you that you could never back the other side, that's the time to do it. I can just hear Joe Square right now: "Cincinnati is horrible. They couldn't even beat lowly Denver at home. Green Bay is a good team and Aaron Rodgers is going to feast here." Well, if it were that easy folks, big favorites in the NFL would win and cover every week. Ask the Patriots and the Chargers how that worked out for them last week. The fact is, Green Bay looked rusty last week. They still got us the win and cover, but they didn't dominate as expected. Green Bay actually had just 226 yards of offense and 26:57 time of possession. Without a +4 turnover advantage, the Packers lose that game and this line is set closer to 7 points. The Bengals actually dominated the Broncos, owning a seven minute time of possession advantage. Carson Palmer hit 64% of his passes. The defense essentially held the Broncos to 6 points before that late fluke play. I like the Bengals to find a way to keep this one under the very large number.