Cincinnati at Detroit

Detroit likes to throw the ball - that we know. But, Calvin Johnson is really hurting right now. In the last three weeks combined he has 7 catches for a total of 69 yards. The Bengals come in with a top 10 defense and they are a tough team to attack through the air, as they have not allowed a QB to pass for over 300 yards this season. Through six games they are allowing less than 20 points per game. The Bengals seemingly have a lot of offensive weapons, but it hasn't translated this season. Andy Dalton has been mediocre thus far and as a result, this team is averaging just 20.2 points per game. Against good defense (Cleveland and New England), they scored just 9.5 points per game. Both of these QBs are vulnerable to interceptions, and so far these teams have been doing a great job of forcing turnovers. It is likely that a drive or two or more will stall thanks to  turnovers, making it tough to get over this high total. The Bengals come in at 11-4 to the UNDER in their last 15 overall, including 10-3 to the UNDER after a win. In the Marvin Lewis era, Cincy is 44-30 UNDER in games with a total set in this range (42.5 to 49). They are also 9-2 to the UNDER since last season when facing offenses like Detroit's that average 350+ yards per game. I see the winner getting no more than 24 points here, and will make the play on the UNDER.