Cincinnati at Detroit

Yeah, this one takes heart. It's hard to back Detroit and hard to go against Cincinnati. But, the Bengals have shown a propensity to play down to their competition this season. Last week they nearly lost to Cleveland. Overall, in their four games in which they have been touchdown or higher favorites this season, they are just 1-3 ATS. In their one win, they let Baltimore score 29 on them. Baltimore hasn't scored more than 19 against any of their other opponents! Cincinnati can't be too interested in this game against Detroit. But, Detroit is not so bad at home, especially on defense. They have held opponents there to 18.4 points per game. A lot of Cincinnati's success has come from forcing turnovers. In games in which they've forced less than 3 turnovers, they are 1-4-1 ATS. Detroit isn't very turnover-prone, having committed 3+ turnover just three times in 13 games. And, these things usually even out over time - how long can they continue to get so many turnovers? Cincinnati's 24th ranked defense will allow a struggling Detroit offense to actually get some traction here. The Bengals offense will certainly produce but Detroit's defense at home, and their pass defense which isn't terrible (ranked 10th) will give them a shot to keep this within reach. Detroit's horrible play of late, and the success of favorites this season, have inflated this line a couple of points and forced it over the "magic" 7 point threshold. It really should probably be about 6.5 but at +8 we are getting a lot of value. One star on the Lions plus the points.