Cincinnati at Baltimore

This is an AFC North battle between two strong defensive lines that play physical, smash-mouth football. The Bengals defense was hurt by injuries last season and slipped, but the previous three years they ranked #7, #6 and #3 in total defense. They are healthy in 2015 and look back to being a top seven defense. DE Michael Johnson returned after a one-year stay in Tampa and was on the field for 58% of the defensive snaps the last game, a 24-19 win over San Diego. Cincinnati has a ball-control offense and the team is on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 7-1 UNDER on the road. This is the first home game for Baltimore, where the defense plays so well. The run defense has been strong again, ranked #11 in rush yards. Baltimore is 4-1 UNDER the total at home, including 12-5 UNDER at home against a team with a winning road record. This shapes up as a tough defensive game with more field goals than TDs. Also note that when they meet on this field the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight meetings in Baltimore. Play this one to come in UNDER the total.