Cincinnati at Atlanta

Matt Ryan threw for 250 yards last game but it took him 43 passes to do it. That performance has been a reflection of his career: Great at home, average at best on the road. At home he completes 6% more of his passes and his yards per attempt rise a significant 1.5 yards. The TD/INT ratio improves as well, goijng from 26 TDs and 18 INTs on the road to 21/11 at home. Needless to say, the Falcons are more offensive under the Georgia Dome where the have averaged 24.2 points per game in their last nine. The Bengals rank No. 13 in terms of yards allowed per game, but those numbers don't tell the whole story as they have been padded against poor offenses. The reality is that they allowed season-high points to both Cleveland and Tampa Bay, and were a field goal away from allowing New England's season high of points too. The Bengals went over 350 yards themselves last game. After doing that they have been 5-1 to the OVER in their next one. After allowing 30 points in their previous game, the Falcons are 7-2 to the OVER in their last nine. There is a lot of hidden value in this total and I like the OVER.