Chicago at St. Louis

The Rams are 4-6, but that might be misleading. They have had some odd games where everything worked in their favor, got all the breaks and cashed in lopsided affairs. The first occurred against Houston where as a +9.5 road underdog they won 38-13. The second was last week when they crushed the Indianapolis Colts 38-8 as a +7.5 point underdog. The problem is when there is normalcy in their games, they simply aren't good enough to win. That rings particularly true now that they have a back-up QB, as they are 2-6 in the rest of their games, including a win against Jacksonville. Chicago is 6-4, and without something abnormal happening in this game, Chicago is going to win. The Bears' backup QB has a passer rating of 100, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. There's talk already that paying Jay Cutler the big bucks may not be worth it as McCown has been every bit his equal so far. The Bears have taken five of the last six meetings ATS, including 4-1 here. Since last season, the Bears are 8-1 straight-up vs. losing team With Cutler in the game, this line would be a lot bigger, so we get value playing the Bears with McCown here. Take Chicago.