Chicago at San Francisco

The Bears are a decent team that has looked bad in two of the last three weeks, having allowed over 40 points in two of them. The Niners looked like a playoff team off a strong finish last year and after a 3-1 start in 2009, they looked like a team on a mission. But, they have since dropped four straight. The changes for the Niners have been dramatic on both sides of the ball. Through their first four games they were scoring 25.5 ppg and allowing just 13.3 ppg. Those numbers over the last four have changed dramatically to 18 ppg on offense and 30.3 on defense. A team that was outscoring opponents by 12 per game is now being outscored by 12 - a 24-point swing. The level of competition might be part of it, but let's be reasonable here. A 24 ppg swing points to some core issues. Some of those issues are up front on the offensive line for the Niners. They have had ongoing problems on the right side, and have lost Joe Staley on the left side. The sack count against the Niners is up to 26, and I see the Bears coming after Alex Smith hard here. The Bears have responded very well in the past after a poor defensive perfromance, as they are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 30 or more. The Bears always associated with defense but they have not played that way of late. They have gone 31-14-1 to the over in their last 46 NFC contests. The Niners have been involved with lots of scoring in the role of a home favorite, as they are 12-4 to the over in their last 16 in that role. Both teams have issues on defense, but the better team, and the one with fewer issues is getting the points. I'm going with the Bears, and the OVER in this one.