Chicago at Miami

The Miami Dophins lost a pair of QB's last week when both Chad Pennington and Chad Henne went down with injuries. Pennington's big comeback lasted all of two plays and he's done for the season. Henne's injury is less serious and there's a chance he'll play tonight but I'm not counting on it. Tyler Thigpen will likely be the man tonight and while the third QB option may seem dire, it might be an improvement. The reality is that Henne wasn't playing well which is why he got the hook in the first place. Thigpen adds a bit of a new wrinkle as he is a very good scrambler, averaging 6.2 yards a carry when he started for Kansas City. He has gotten all the first-team reps this week and should come in with some confidence after throwing a touchdown in last week's win over the Titans. And, this offense with the Wildcat is less dependent on great QB play than most. So I think the Dolphins will be ok here, especially vs. a Bears team that is really struggling to score points this season. The Bears have been up-and-down this season. They started off 3-1 with their only loss coming to the Giants. Some were talking about them as a great surprise. Then they went on two lose two in a row to some pretty bad teams. All of a sudden they were 3-3. Well, they have now won two straight and stand at 5-3. Will the real Bears team please stand up? Personally, I remain very skeptical about this team. Let's take a look at their wins to draw back the curtain and expose the real Bears. They beat Dallas when Dallas was horrible. If you remember, if not for a stupid pitch play at the end of the half in that game, and a 3-0 turnover advantage for Chicago, Dallas wins. Chicago then beat Green Bay - a quality win. But, they needed the turnover edge again to win. Their next win was against 1-8 Carolina - nuff said. Their last two wins came against a 1-8 Buffalo team and a 3-6 Vikings team. In those last two wins against bad teams, they needed a 7-3 turnover edge to win. Overall the record of the teams the Bears have beaten is 13-32! Even with their extremely easy schedule, the Bears have been outgained on the year. Chicago's offense this season has been pretty bad. Jay Cutler is a very inconsistent QB. He shows flashes of brilliance but he makes too many mistakes and as a result, he has not proven to be a winner. Worse than just losing, the teams he leads have drastically underperformed expectations. His teams are just 19-40 ATS in his 59 NFL starts. The Bears have never been a good road dog. In their last 12 on the road, they have gone 2-9-1 ATS. When on the road vs. a winning team, the Bears are 0-6 ATS over the past 2.5 seasons. Miami is the better team, even with Thigpen taking snaps. I like the Dolphins to win and cover here. I also like the OVER. Sure, neither of these offenese has put up a lot of points, but I think they will get over this low total tonight. Miaimi has been a highly profitable OVER team when playing at home, as just one of their last 12 has failed to go OVER the total. After a game in which they held their opponent to 15 or fewer points, the Bears are 6-2 to the OVER. The public is really split on this game tonight. My computer matchup for this game (not an official pick) likes Miami by a nose. I like Miami and the OVER tonight.