Chicago at Kansas City

You can't trust the banged-up Bears anywhere, on a 13-27-1 ATS run, including 5-11 ATS on grass. Chicago got QB Jay Cutler back and WR Alshon Jeffrey is expected back Sunday after missing three games, which will help the offense. But can we trust this defense? Chicago is 17-7 OVER the total following a spread cover and 18-6 OVER on the road. This defense is last in the NFL in points allowed (31.3 points per game). Cutler threw another fourth-quarter pick last week against Oakland - his second in two full games. They face a Kansas City team on a three-game skid, but they've been saddled with a terrible schedule, hosting Denver, then back-to-back road games at Green Bay and Cincinnati. They should have beaten the Broncos and put 28 points on the Packers defense. This is still a solid all-around Kansas City team with better wideouts than last season, a star RB in Jamaal Charles and a QB in Alex Smith who knows how to protect the football and manage a game. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS against a team with a losing record and on a 6-2 ATS run at home. They are also on a 4-0 run OVER the total because of their lone weak spot, which is a young secondary. Still, they will have more than enough to put up plenty of points on the defenseless Bears, who they are 3-0-1 ATS against the four meetings. John Fox coached teams are 22-8 to the OVER on the road vs. good offenses (teams like Chicago averaging 5.7+ yards per play). Take Kansas City and the OVER.