Chicago at Green Bay

Ahh, another big spread in week 2. How can you not love the Pack after their dismantling of Carolina last week? And, the Bears lost at home to the lowly Lions (first road win for the Lions in 25 tries). Well, this spread is just too big. By now you know that I like to be the contrarian so this pick shouldn't surprise you. The Bears loss was due primarily to four turnovers so don't read too much into that one. Chicago showed it has a running game with Thomas Jones and the Packers will be without nosetackle Grady Jackson who was injured on Monday night. Green Bay has a short week of prep against a weaker opponent. If Chicago can eat up clock with the run and keep Brett Favre and Ahman Green on the sideline, they have a shot in this one. Home teams coming off a week 1 Monday night game cover the spread only 30% of the time. Also, teams coming off a big week 1 straight-up underdog win lose against the spread in week 2 over two-thirds of the time. Nice value here with public perception pushing this line too high. One unit on Chicago to cover 8.5 and one unit on the long-shot outright win.