Chicago at Green Bay

This is a good spot for the big dog in this NFC North rivalry. Chicago has second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, a star in RB Jordan Howard (1,122 yards) and added wide receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, along with pass-catching tight end Trey Burton. This defense looks strong all around, a unit that was #10 in yards, ninth in points allowed, anchored by DE Akiem Hicks and star LB Khalil Mack from the Raiders. Retaining CBs Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara was a big win in free agency, too, keeping the secondary intact. They are a big dog to a Green Bay team off a 7-9 campaign. Sure, 34-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers is back, but they had a cost-cutting move, releasing Rodgers' favorite WR Jordy Nelson, along with uncertainty on the injury-riddled right side of the offensive line. And there are question marks on a defense that doesn't generate enough pass rush (#17 in sacks in 2017) and a secondary that ranked #23 in yards surrendered, #26 in points allowed. NFL home favorites that had a losing record the previous season are 87-141 ATS in conference games. The Packers have failed to cover four of their last five games in Lambeau Field and this shapes up as a close one. Play the big points on Chicago. Also take the UNDER. Chicago scored just 16.5 points per gaem last season while Green Bay managed just 17.4 per gaem at home. The Bears finished the season playing stout defense, allowing 15.3 per game over their last three gaems, and only 20 per game on the season. Back the dog and the UNDER in this one.