Chicago at Green Bay

Merry Christmas! The Green Bay Packers saw their unbeaten streak end at 19 games last week as a two-touchdown favorite at Kansas City. Often times when teams play at such a high level and then finally lose there is a letdown. Equipped with a 13-1 record and heading into week 16, health becomes more of a priority than winning. They already lost Greg Jennings for weeks and the offensive line is banged up. So, I don't think Green Bay is going to have the pedal to the metal here for four quarters. The Bears will get points and yards against the Packers who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Kansas City just pounded them all game and the Bears can do the same. That pressure will give new QB Josh McCown selected opportunities to do some damage. The Bears have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games posted as a dog of +10.5 or more. Since Lovie Smith took over in Chicago, the Bears are 9-1 ATS revenging a home loss as they are here. I like Chicago to hang inside this number. I also like the OVER in this game. The Packers have topped this total 10 times in their 14 games this season. Green Bay has been on the road for three of the last four weeks, and let's not forget that their games at Lambeau Field this season have averaged 58.3 points per game. This is the lowest total they will have played to all season, and it is simply too low. The Bears are 6-2 to the OVER after a game with less than 150 yards passing. Green Bay is now 24-9 to the OVER in their last 33 at home, and 18-8-1 to the OVER in their last 27 when scoring 15 or less in their last game. Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack are 25-13 OVER as a home favorite including 13-4 OVER when laying 7.5 to 14 points. They are also 21-9 OVER in the McCarthy era following a loss. The call here goes to Chicago and the OVER.