Chicago at Detroit

The Bears and Lions have reputations for being great on offense with their big-name QBs. But, that is simply not the case in 2014. Jay Cutler remains mistake prone and has little help. His top running back averages just 4.2 per carry, so opposing defenses know Cutler has to pass often with the ground attack ranked 20th. At least Chicago has a young defense that is beginning to get it together somewhat after a really bad start. They have allowed 13 points in each of the last two games (2-0 UNDER the total). This Chicago offense will find the going tough against the great Detroit defense, ranked tops in the league. They are 10th in the NFL against the pass and #1 against the run. Detroit is on an 8-1 run UNDER the total riding a 2-game skid scoring 6 and 9 points, so the offense is out of sync. Their top two runnings backs average 3.5 and 3.6 yards per carry, so Matt Stafford has to carry the load. He has just 13 TDs and 10 picks with the ground game 30th in the league.  The last meeting between these teams one year ago was a 21-19 Detroit win that sailed UNDER the total. Despite their offensive woes, I really like Detroit to win this game. Their defense is superior and favorites on Thanksgiving Day have performed outstanding of late. While it may turn out to be close, expect Detroit to come away with the W. After the mid-point in the season, home favorites of more than 4.5 points that are coming off back-to-back road losses have won straight-up 86% of the time the last 25 years. If the team has a win percentage of 55%+, they are 29-1 staright up! The value is with the Lions on the moneyline and the UNDER.