Chicago at Denver

It took a while but the oddsmakers and public are now officially all aboard the Tim Tebow train. It is hard to turn on any sports show and not hear about his heroics, and how he has personally transformed the Broncos. Even those who dissed him early on seem to have been taken and many have backtracked on their comments that he is not a viable longterm NFL quarterback. There is a lot of truth to that as he has certainly given the Broncos a boost and he is winning. Last week he actually threw the ball for 200+ yards. But, I am not completely sold yet. I think this is a good spot to fade the Broncos (a bit overrated) and back the Bears (a bit underrated). Due to a schedule fluke the Bears will now be playing their fourth straight game vs. the AFC West. Whereas the Broncos stock has never been higher, Chicago's has never been lower. Last week's 10-3 loss to the Chiefs provides a lot of value for us in this one. The Bears are still a good team and let's not forget the Broncos gave up 32 points to a 2-10 team last week with a rookie QB. Denver has allowed 40+ in two other games this season. Denver is just 10-31 ATS in their last 41 as a favorite, including 2-15 ATS as a favorite of -3.5 or more in their last 17. The Bears offense is struggling but they will make adjustments and their history shows that as they are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring 15 or less in their previous game. I like the Bears with the points. I also like the OVER here. There is value on an OVER play automatically when one team was invloved in such a low scoring affair last week (10-3 Bears game). Denver is all of a sudden viewed as a great defensive team thanks to holding a few good defensive efforts. But let's look a bit closer. Denver kept Kansas City to 10, the Jets to 13 and a struggling Chargers team to 13. That's not exactly much of a resume. How quickly people forget that this same defense allowed 49 to Green Bay, 29 to San Diego earlier, 45 to Detroit, 24 to Oakland and 32 to Minnesota with a rookie QB. Denver has been known to give up points as a favorite and have been 10-1 to the OVER in their last 11 in that role. The Broncos are also 13-3 to the OVER in their last 16 vs. a winning team. Play on Chicago and take the OVER.