Chicago at Dallas

As mentioned, the Bears are off a crushing 41-10 defeat at the hands of the Colts. I don't read too much into that as the Colts are en fuego right now. Chicago isn't as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate. While they started horribly at 1-5, they've since gone 3-1, surprising the Giants and Titans as a 9 and 6 point underdog, respectively. Dallas is showing that they are a terrible team. Parcells hasn't been able to move them in the right direction for weeks. I do think they are going to improve throughout the rest of the year now that the pressure of playoff contention is gone and Julius Jones and Drew Henson get some playing time. I just don't think this is the game in which that happens. While those guys will help, Dallas' primary problem is not on offense. Their defense is allowing 28.2 points per game - third worst in the league. I don't like laying over a field goal on a team with a "rookie" quarterback and a defense that is this bad. Underdogs off a big 3+ touchdown loss vs. a team playing terrible defense are 52-24 (68%) ATS. Two weeks ago New Orleans faced Kansas City in this exact situation as the Saints were off a 17-43 loss and KC had given up 69 points in their prior two games. New Orleans covered as a 3.5 underdog - the same spread we are looking at in this game. A slight lean on the Bears here to keep it close. We'll go one star (1% of bankroll) on Chicago plus the points.