Chicago at Buffalo

The Bills remain the league’s only team without a win, but they surely have not quit and have been knocking on the door. We backed them with a huge 5-unit play last week and they came through. I like them again this week (albeit not as much as last). The Bills’ last two games were vs. Baltimore and Kansas City on the road. They are two very good teams that the Bills extended both to overtime. Buffalo is simply better than their record. Their offense has shown some signs of life after opening averaging 8.5 ppg in their first two games. Since that time, they have averaged 23 ppg in their last five. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the difference, passing for 6.8 yards per attempt compared to Trent Edwards’ 4.6 ypa. The Bears were a surprise at 3-0, but they have regressed as the season has moved forward and have now gone just 1-3 in their last four games. The Bears’ offense has been killing them, averaging just 15 points per game in their last four. On the road this season, Chicago is averaging 222 yards of total offense (vs. 310 per game allowed). On the season in all games, the Bears have been outgained. Buffalo may look like an ugly dog here, but teams that have lost seven games in a row in the NFL are 45-25 ATS as an underdog. Buffalo should keep this close, if not win outright. I also like this game to go OVER the total. The Bears have left behind a profitable OVER signature as a favorite of 3 points or less where the OVER has been 12-2 in their last 14. The Bills have gone OVER in each of their last four following a game where they allowed 150+ yards on the ground. I like Buffalo to cover and the total to finish OVER in this one.