Chicago at Arizona

This one on paper looks simple, right? Well, yes it does. Chicago is so dominant from a statistical perspective that this game should be a big-time blowout. How good have the Bears been? They are allowing 7.2 points per game - best in the league. They are ranked 3rd in yards per game allowed. On offense, they are scoring 31.2 per game - also best in the league. And they are 5th in total yards gained, so it's not just their defense returning interceptions for touchdowns here. Arizona allows 368 yards per game and 24 points per game - both near the bottom of the league. The Cards are definitely a better team at home and they will be pumped up tonight. But will it matter? I don't think so. If Chicago shows up, it's no contest. Arizona allowed 27 points to San Francisco, 32 to Atlanta and 23 to a KC team that now looks to be below average on offense. Their defense just isn't very good. Their offense has been spotty. While they put up 34 on San Francisco at home in week one, that's not a big deal. The Niners are the worst defense in the league allowing 29.2 per game. Outside of that one game, Arizona is scoring 13.5 per game. Again, if Chicago shows up with their regular "A" game here, Arizona is going to struggle mightily to move the ball, especially with a rookie QB at the helm. Take away that rookie's best wide receiver (Larry Fitzgerald is doubtful with hamstring injury) and things look very dim for Arizona's offense. On top of that, Edgerrin James has not been able to do much. Without an offensive line and without a QB with the skills of a Peyton Manning, he's looking like a very average running back. He's getting just 68.6 yards per game. But is this too easy/too good to be true? Granted that sometimes situations and emotions overcome skill. For example, New Orleans was able to put a smackdown on Atlanta a few weeks ago on Monday Night. It looked like the Falcons were the better team at that point and you might dispute that now. But in either case, Atlanta should not have lost that game 23-3 based on skill alone. But in tonight's game I think the skill difference is just too much to overcome. And, Chicago is arguably as motivated as the Cardinals. Arizona is more in need of a win. But, Chicago has a perfect season in their sights. I think they still feel a little under-rated. They were really under the radar for the first few weeks of the season. After dismantling Seattle and Buffalo the past two weeks though, they are definitely no longer under the radar. But, I think they still feel like they have something to prove. I would be very shocked if they didn't show up here. If they were to come in overconfident and sleep walk through this game, Arizona covers. But again, with Lovie Smith at the helm, a perfect season at risk, a national audience watching, and a bye-week upcoming, I would be very surprised to see Chicago come in lethargic. Assuming Chicago doesn't letdown, how can you not love them here? Arizona has a bad offensive line, no running game, a rookie QB and their top receiver is out. Chicago has the meanest and best defense in the league. Will Arizona be able to manage 10 points here? Doubtful. Chicago's offense is clicking and they have a ton of confidence. The capper here for me is that Chicago's bye week is upcoming. This provides more reason to believe they won't suffer a look-ahead or letdown here (the only way they don't cover). The Bears can ruin their perfect start to this season by going into the bye off a surprise loss. The coach and players know that. I have a situational trend that looks at big favorites the week before their bye. So far this season it is 4-1 ATS. The past two seasons it was 10-1 ATS. The reason this situation works is that teams really want to win before their bye. They are focused because they have no look-ahead and they know a rest is coming. And, big favorites have the skill to lay a whopping on their opponent. I think the Bears will be laser focused here and dominate from start-to-finish. Just too good a team for Arizona to overcome. Take the Bears minus the points. If you bet this game at a place like BoDog where lots of amatuers bet (amateures love favorites), you'll get a very bad line on the big favorite. But, other sportsbooks like Pinnacle have this game at -11.5 at this time.