Carolina vs. Denver

Bettors dont want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open the game two years ago? Who cares that the Pats took a 7-0 lead on Seattle last year? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Lets have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 49 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won 76% of the time (37-12) and has gone 36-11-2 against the spread. It doesnt matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning this game. The last five Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet five straight times. Over the past 27 years, the YES on this has hit 18 times (67%). At a 67% win rate, the fair line on this bet is -203. At the longer term rate of 76%, the fair line is -317. Yet, we get odds of just -165 on this prop bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop.