Carolina at Tampa Bay

Last week the Bucs posted a 27-9 victory over San Francisco in a snoozefest. Jameis Winston threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns and the Buccaneers held the 49ers scoreless in the second half in arguably their best defensive performance of the season. The Panthers have dropped three straight, allowing over 100 points in the process. That has affected this total, pushing it up to the mid 50s. This is a rare high total and the past 12 times the Bucs have played in game with a total in the 50s, the UNDER has hit 10 times. But, I don't think they will allow that much to a well-known division rival here, especially considering that the Bucs average just 22 points per game at home this season. And, the Panthers have managed just 20.4 points per game on the road this season. The Buccaneers have gone UNDER in 12 of their last 16 home games and 17 of their last 25 overall after a win by at least two touchdowns. Also, the UNDER is 17-8-1 in their last 26 December games. Tampa Bay averaged only 3.1 yards per carry against the 49ers and the Carolina defense will zoom in on Winston as the Panthers are #6 in the NFL in rush defense, allowing 96.4 yards per game. Take the UNDER.