Carolina at Pittsburgh

I know, I know. I just can't seem to get it right with the Panthers this season. But, I'm going ot continue to go with what I think is right and tonight I think that's a play on Carolina plus the bucketload of points. It's not often you get two TDs in the NFL and I'm jumping on it. The Panthers have had a miserable year, but they haven't quit. They were rewarded with a win in their last time on the field, which should offer incentive to play hard here. This might be a good spot for Pittsburgh to try and keep from adding to the pile of injuries that have plagued them on both sides of the ball (Heath Miller, Troy Polamalu). Pittsburgh has already locked up a playoff spot. If they get a big lead, I look for them to try to run clock and get out of the game as healty as possible. The Steelers have never been a good team facing large numbers as a chalk. In fact the last three times they faced a line greater than two touchdowns saw them go 0-3 ATS. They are also just 7-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. really bad offensive teams like Carolina (those averaging 14 or fewer points per game). When facing teasm that are outscored by 6+ ppg on average, the Steelers are 0-6 ATS the past two seasons. The Panthers are no strangers to tackling big numbers, having been a very profitable 30-16 ATS taking more than a TD in their franchise history. And, under John Fox, this team is 8-1 ATS on the road in the final two weeks of the season. Yes, Pittsburgh is a much better team and could easily win this game by 20+. But, I think the value is on the Panthers plus the points.