Carolina at Philadelphia

Yes, Philadelphia is very good. But do they deserve to be nine point favorites here? Short memories are at play as the public has suddenly forgotten that this Carolina team nearly won last year's Super Bowl. This is not the same team but Philly is definitely overrated at this point in the season and I expect some complacency to be setting in right about now. When a team is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, the public starts giving them too much credit and teams start believing their own press. The Panthers had a great shot at upsetting Denver on the road last week but a critical penalty got in the way. They still covered the spread. They aren't as bad as their 1-3 record may indicate. Despite their problems, the Panthers actually have the league's 4th best pass defense which they will need against McNabb and T.O. But in this game, Stephen Davis is the real key. Carolina's sole win - a very impressive one - came against Kansas City when Davis ran for 174 yards. With him in there, Carolina has a running game and the pressure is off Delhomme. Davis is questionable this week. If he plays, this becomes a stronger pick but I expect the Panthers to keep this closer than nine points, regardless. Bet 55 to win 50 on Carolina.