Carolina at New Orleans

The defending Super Bowl Champion Saints are finding that life is different once you put a ring on your finger. You become, by default, the biggest game on your opponent's schedule. There is also a Super Bowl hangover that seems to prevail as we have seen from past champions. At this time a year ago the Saints were 3-0, averaging 40 points per game, and the offense appeared unstoppable. This year the 40 ppg has been cut nearly in half to 21 ppg. They look very ordinary, putting up 331 yards per game - a far cry from the nearly 440 yards per game through week three a year ago. The loss of Reggie Bush has made things even worse. The Saints have been outgained this year, giving up 362 yards per game. Carolina has been very consistent through three games - consistently bad as they have taken the hat trick on 13-point losses. Despite the losses, in their last to games the Panthers have been on equal footing at the line of scrimmage, losing the yardage battle by a scant 33 yards total. The Achilles heel has been turnovers, as the Panthers are -6 through three games. So as bad as things look, it is almost 100% attributable to turnovers. That tends to balance out with time. The main result of that is a very big line here. The Panthers have gotten their game on vs. good teams at 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. New Orleans has been a tasty treat for Carolina backers as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine trips here. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 30-18 ATS as a road dog and 16-7 ATS on the road vs. division foes. Carolina gets the cover. I also like the OVER in this game. This is a very low total for the Saints to top as they have been money playing to totals in the 40s or less, going 19-8-1 to the OVER in their last 28. The Panthers are topping totals to a 9-3 mark in their last 12 vs. a team with a wining home record. In conference games, the Saints are 35-19 OVER under Sean Payton. I like Carolina to find enough offense to get the cover and push the OVER here.