Carolina at New Orleans

What a difference a weekn (and an OT loss) can make. Last week Carolina was playing the Giants for the potential top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This week they are looking down the barrel of the #5 seed if they lose this game. The NFC South has been an impossible place to play for visitors as all teams entering week 17 carry winning home records. Given that all teams have a winning record overall as well, it has to be considered the toughest division in the NFL. These teams have compiled a 26-3 SU record at home as well as a rate of 20-8-1 ATS. Division games certainly haven't been a picnic for Carolina as they have suffered their two biggest losses of the season on the road within their conference. They dropped their game at Atlanta by 17 and at Tampa by 24. Their track record on the road is shaky all together. While they are 3-4, the Panthers are a dismal 0-4 against a teams with a winning record. Their three wins consist of a two- point win and a four-point win against teams with losing records. So being instilled as a favorite here is suspect as these NFC South teams are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog. New Orleans simply has a bad defense, but they have utilized their top-ranked offense to seduce teams into shootouts. They have faced running backs that are ranked in the top four in the league five times this season. They have faced Michael Turner twice, DeAngelo Williams, Adrien Peterson and Clinton Portis. Not a single one of these top backs rushed for 100 yards on the Saints. They have stopped them all cold. They combined to average just 3.3 yards per carry against the Saints! New Orleans simply loads up the box versus these backs and forces them to play their passing offense against that of the Saints. Carolina did a good job at home against the Saints, as they were the only team this season to hold them under 20 points. But this one is the road and in this division this year, those scores have been reversed almost each and every time. This is a high total, but should be more like a playoff game, and these teams have played UNDER in seven of their last eight meetings. Carolina has played UNDER in their last six after allowing 150+ on the ground in their last game. I like the Saints here and the UNDER.