Carolina at New Orleans

The Saints have to be thankful for being in the lackluster NFC South, or their playoff hopes would have vanished weeks ago. They are just 5-7 on the season, but share the division lead with Atlanta. I'm not sure if I ever saw a double-digit line this late in the season when the two teams are separated in the standings by just 1.5 games. In fact, a Carolina win here would leave these teams even in the loss column. It makes no sense, and it is a severe overlay on what the Saints are supposed to be as opposed to what they are. New Orleans simply isn't as good this year on either side of the ball. Last year in 18 games they allowed 27 points or more just two times. This year they have allowed 27+ points in more than half their games. Fortunately for them, Carolina is not a good offensive team. But, I think with revenge motivation, and a chance to get back into the race in the NFC South, the Panthers will make a strong effort. Divsion games are played more intensely, and division dogs of more than 10 points cover 56.3% of all games. Carolina is also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 trips to New Orleans and under Ron Rivera, this team is 12-1 ATS coming off a road loss. Play the points on Carolina.