Carolina at Miami

Four weeks ago, sitting at 3-3, I stated on ESPN that the Carolina Panthers were solidly a top 10 team. Since then they have won four straight games both straight-up and against the spread but amazingly they are still under the radar. Some claimed that their wins came against weak teams, but the last two weeks they added San Francisco and New England to their victims list. Yet still the respect is low. If other big name NFL teams had reeled off six straight wins SU and ATS, they would be posted as a much bigger favorite here. Yet, we get one of the best teams in the league facing a bad team and laying less than a touchdown. That's value you don't often see in the NFL. Carolina has played consistent defense all season, but what they have added now is a consistent offense. That has been even more true when they face a team that is .500 or worse, like the Dolphins. Carolina's last five games vs. a .500 or less team has seen them produce 34, 31, 30, 35 and 28 points - an average of 31.6 points per game. Miami started the season 3-0, but have not been the same team since, as they are just 2-5 in their last seven games. The Carolina offense should have no problems doing what they have done against pedestrian teams, as Miami has allowed 20 or more points to eight of their last nine opponents. The Panthers should get enough here offensively to push this one OVER the total, as they have scored 17 points or more in every game. Carolina is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road, and Miami has played just two games UNDER the total over their last nine. Make the play on Carolina and the OVER.