Carolina at Detroit

This game has moved from pick to Detroit minus one. Wrong direction. After a rough start, Carolina is back above .500 and grooving on offense. Steve Smith's absence last year was a major reason for their early season troubles. This year Smith is back with a vengeance. He leads the league in touchdowns by a wide receiver with six and has been the difference in more than one game this season. The Panthers showed heart last week, coming back from a 10-20 defecit to win the game. They've needed the offense as their defense has underperformed thus far. Detroit hasn't shown me much yet. They've lost to the two good teams they played (Chicago and Tampa) and beat two bad teams (Green Bay and Baltimore). In those two wins, they were helped mightily by the 7 turnovers they forced. My power ratings peg Carolina as the much better team here and I believe Detroit to be overrated. Carolina is 8-1 as an underdog this year and last year and 11-2 as a road dog over the past three seasons. Underdogs vs. teams that are forcing lots of turnovers hit at about 68% against the spread as things return to normal. And, I have a very strong situational trend that applies here involving teams like the Lions that are off a game in which they were outplayed statistically but had a turnover advantage that let them win the game. Bottom line here... Detroit looks better than they really are due to turnovers. Those things don't last forever. Take the dog here for one star.