Carolina at Cincinnati

The Panthers started slow losing their first two games in 2006. They faced solid competition in Atlanta and Minnesota in those two games and they were without Steve Smith. Since then, with Smith back in the lineup, they have reeled off four straight wins. Bettors got burned nonetheless by backing Carolina as they have failed to cover the spread in all but one of those games. Carolina has played in close games all season long. But here they are getting points. They face a Bengals team that has been a relative dissapointment. Their defense is porous, especially on the ground (allowing 140 yards per game rushing). They've lost twice now and two of their three victories have come against weak competition (Kansas City and Cleveland). Their offense, so high-powered last year, has been anything but in 2006. They are managing just 97 rushing yards per game and overall they are ranked 17th in the league in offense. Why? Maybe defenses have figured them out a bit or maybe it's the loss of left tackle Levi Jones and Center Rich Braham. In any case, Carolina is playing better than the Bengals right now and Steve Smith is coming back into his own. Against this defense, the Panthers offense should be able to run and throw the ball at will. Carolina is 12-3 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog and with John Fox as head coach, the Panthers are 19-9 ATS in expected close games (lined at +3 to -3). Fox is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. Panthers in this one.