Carolina at Atlanta

I've picked Carolina for three weeks in a row. Make it four. These guys have been money in the bank and I expect it continue on Sunday night. They've reeled off five straight weeks of SU and ATS wins as the public has been slow to react to their dramatic turnaround. My analysis tells me they are the better team in this matchup, despite facing a 10-3 team that has locked up their division. Over their last five games, Carolina is winning by an average score of 29-16. Over that same span, Atlanta is winning by an average margin of just 3 and scoring under 20 points per game. Despite being 10-3, the Falcons have a losing record against-the-spread. Who has Atlanta played? Well, consider that in their 13 games, they have played a grand total of 2 winning teams (Denver and San Diego). This will be one of the biggest tests for Atlanta all season. While still fighting for a first-round bye, this is officially a let down game for Atlanta as they clinched their division last week. Atlanta has a killer running game but Carolina can stop them. The Panthers have held their four most recent opponents to an average of 61 yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush. Atlanta will be without TJ Duckett on Saturday night, as well. If Carolina can bottle up Warrick Dunn, Atlanta will have little to fall back on as their pass offense is among the three worst in the league and Carolina's pass defense is playing excellent. With they way they are playing, Carolina is the better team and they are fighting for their lives. Getting 3.5 is an absolute gift. The Panthers get revenge here and keep their dream-like run and playoff hopes alive. Two star pick on the Panthers +3.5 and two stars on them to win outright.