Buffalo at Tampa Bay

The Buffalo Bills saw their faint playoffs hopes all but vanish after a 34-31 overtime loss to Atlanta last week. Now they head to Tampa Bay to play a team that has been playing pretty well after an awful 0-8 start. The big difference for the Bucs has been the insertion of QB Mike Glennon. Glennon has developed into a reliable play caller, and his 90+ passer rating is pretty good for a rookie that is learning the ropes on the fly. Despite their 6 points last week in Carolina, the Bucs have been much better offensively since Glennon took over. The issue still remains with a defense that has allowed 27 points or more in six of the last eight weeks. In their last three, the Buc have given up an average of 25.3 points per game. Buffalo's offense is starting to come along as well, and they have topped 30 points in each of the past two weeks after not getting there at all previously this season. In their last three games, they have averaged 26 points per game. I can see both these teams getting well into the 20s, which is plenty to push the total OVER the top here. The Bucs own a 12-28-1 ATS mark in their last 41 at home. When they have faced a team here that doesn't get their attention (one with a losing road record) they are 4-17 ATS in their last 21. Tampa Bay is also 29-11-1 to the OVER in their last 41 vs. a losing team. Take Buffalo as my NFL ATS Game of the Month and play the OVER here.